Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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FXCM’s CHN50 basket offers some suggestion of contrarian price action.
UKOil has pushed into its bullish channel, between the upper blue and red bands. Its daily RSI is also above 50, which is the bullish side of the indicator. If these positions are held, there will be an underlying support for UKOil.
Core PCE printed at 4.2% y/y, up from the last release of 4.1% y/y, and headline inflation was higher at 3.3% y/y (compared with the previous 3% y/y). The upticks were due to base effects. Although regarded as volatile, the monthly figures for core and headline PCE were flat, and in line with projections at 0.2% m/m. This is annualised to 2.43%.
August has been a month highlighting US large-cap stock resilience. The robust artificial intelligence led rally in US stocks ran into headwinds during August. But the month is ending with the major US indexes showing signs of durability.
Job creation in the US decelerated for August, as indicated by the ADP report. This suggests that the U.S. economy, which has been resilient, could potentially be entering a phase of moderation due to the increased influence of elevated interest rates.
Yesterday’s JOLTS data came in at 8.83m. This was lower than the previous 9.17m and below the consensus of 9.49m. This reiterates the part of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech suggesting that the US labour market is continuing to rebalance. Chair Powell pointed out that “Job openings remain high but are trending lower” and that “The rebalancing of the labour market has continued over the past year but…
USDOLLAR short-term analysis.
The US 10-year yield is trading near 4.25%, at levels last seen at the end of 2022. The underlying driver is a strong US economy and the sense that the Fed will leave rates “higher for longer.” The strong US-10 year is having an impact on the spread between the US and Canadian 10-year bonds.
Fed Chair Powell’s delivery at Jackson Hole had a hawkishness to it. He said that “although inflation has moved down from its peak…it remains too high.” This comes after the Fed’s 11 rate hikes since the beginning of 2022, which has the target range currently at 5.25%-5.5%. At face value, this seems restrictive, however labour markets are still tight, and GDP is still growing at a fair pace.
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