Weaker Canadian data reflects in USDCAD
Source:www.tradinfview.com
Friday saw Canadian GDP print at -0.2% m/m compared with the previous number of 0.2% m/m. The manufacturing PMI also came in lower at 48 compared with the previous 49.6. At the same time, Canadian unemployment is drifting higher to 5.5%. In response, the Canadian 2-year note declined by 2.02% on Friday.
The spread between the US and Canadian 2-year note has widened in favour of the US, which has, in turn, pulled the USDCAD forex pair up. Since May, the correlation coefficient between the 2-year spread and the USDCAD has increased and is currently at 64%.
.png)
Friday, saw the USDCAD push into the pair's bullish channel between the blue and red bands. The daily RSI is also above 50 (blue rectangle), which is the bullish side of the indicator. The longer it maintains on this side, the greater the probability for higher USDCAD prices ahead.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.