USOIL Upbeat, Helped by Shut Pipeline
USOIL Analysis
The commodity comes from a bad week during which it set fresh 2022 lows, as risk-off sentiment prevailed on fears of recession and China's re-opening effort, but the current one has started with a strong recovery.
This is partly fueled by the fact that the Keystone pipeline, which connect US and Canada, remains shut since Thursday due to an oil leak. The pipeline's operator, TC Energy, estimates that 14,000 barrels of oil were lost, having provided no timeline for its reopening. [1]
The technical outlook for USOil has not changed much from our last analysis, since it quickly returns above the key 200Weeks EMA (blue line). This allows it to look towards the broader 79.11-80.30 region, but this contains multiple roadblocks. As such, It will need a strong catalyst for challenging this level, which would bring 84.70 in the spotlight.
Despite the two-day rebound, USOil remains in a precarious position and in risk of new 2022 lows (70.06), although a bigger drop below 67.11 may prove elusive in the near term.
This week's economic calendar is loaded with events that will likely determine the next leg of the move, with the US CPI inflation update and the Fed's policy decision being in the spotlight. Furthermore, markets will await the monthly oil reports by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 22 Mar 2023 https://www.tcenergy.com/incident/milepost-14-incident/ |
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