USOIL Supported at Key Tech Levels as China’s GDP Slows

  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

USOIL Analysis

China's economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, since GDP expanded by 2.9% y/y, from 3.9% previously, making up a 2022 growth of just 3%. Despite the lackluster data though, oil prices are supported today, amidst continued optimism around China's reopening and hopes for a less aggressive Fed.

Markets expect another downshift in the pace of tightening, with CME's FedWatch Tool pricing-in a smaller 25 basis points hike at the upcoming February 1 meeting [1]. Despite the hawkish stance by policymakers, we have not yet seen any meaningful pushback against those tame expectations.

As such, Fed speeches will be closely monitor over the coming days, ahead of the communication blackout period. Moreover, markets await the monthly oil reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), for more insights around demand.

USOil hovers around the critical and familiar 38.2% Fibonacci of the November high/December low drop, which it had rejected last month, capped by the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The correction is limited so far keeping the risk on, for renewed pressure towards the broader72.43-70.06. However, sustained weakness south of this region, continues to look difficult.

Last week's strong performance and the return above the EMA200 have brought 84.70 in the spotlight, but a catalyst will likely be required for a push towards and beyond this level.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 31 Jan 2023 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

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