USOIL Cautious after its 2-Day Rebound Ahead of the US Fed

  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

USOIL Analysis

The commodity comes from its worst week in around a year and started Monday with 2023 lows, as the banking rout unfolded and pressure moved from SVB to regional US banks and into Europe's Credit Suisse. Authorities on both sides of the Atlantic however, tried to safeguard the financial system with a series of actions, including Sunday's agreement for UBS to acquire embattled rival Credit Swiss.

The robust measures, along with commentary from US Treasury Secretary Yellen on Tuesday, that further action could be taken if "smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the risk of contagion", seem to have calmed markets. [1]

This was supportive for the commodity, which staged a two-day rebound, also helped by news around Russia's production. The country had announced a 500,000 barrels/day production cut for the current month and according to TASS, Deputy PM Novak said this reduction plan will extend through the end of June. [2]

USOil turns cautious today ahead of key tech levels, awaiting the Fed's policy decision due later today. The recent turmoil has moderated market expectation for its policy path and could lead to a reserved approach, although sticky inflation calls for more tightening, At the time of writing, CME's FedWatch Tool assigns the highest to probability to a 25 basis points rate hike, with nearly 15% chances for a pause. [3]

The outcome can spur volatility and will likely determine the commodity's trajectory. The recent rebound gives it the opportunity to push higher, but the upside sees unfriendly from a technical prospective and a strong catalyst will be required for surpassing both EMAs (200 H4s and 200 Weeks).

As long as it stays below the 38.2% Fibonacci of the March slump, USOil is in risk of new 2023 lows towards 64.42-61.72, although sustained weakness below this region may prove tough.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 22 Mar 2023 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1354

2

Retrieved 22 Mar 2023 https://tass.com/economy/1592435

3

Retrieved 18 May 2023 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

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