Currencies

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  • EUR/USD And The Post-Fed Path of Least Resistance

    The US Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday the tapering of its Quantitative Easing program (QE) by $15 billion/month, to begin later in November. However, this was largely dovish, as the bank did not commit to the tapering pace beyond December and did not link the unwinding its asset purchases with future rate hikes, delivering overall the minimum of what was expected. The US Dollar dropped on the news, sending the…

  • USDOLLAR At Important Potential Swing Low Ahead Of FOMC

    Past performance is not an indicator of future results The above shows FXCM's USDOLLAR basket on a weekly chart. Given the expectations of a tapering announcement from the FOMC statement today, the analysis here is important. Last week's candle is a potential swing low reference candle (aqua arrow). To be considered as such, this week's candle will need to close above the reference candle's high (aqua horizontal line). The FOMC…

  • AUD/USD Drop After RBA’s Decision

    The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate (OCR) at 0.1% today and will continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $4 billion a week until at least mid February 2022. However, it decided to discontinue the target for the yield on the April 2024 bond, after the recent 3Y Yields surge. The Board reiterated that it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation…

  • The USDOLLAR Shows Upwards Acceleration

    Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. After a 2020 which saw the greenback's value decline significantly (off the back of the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing), 2021 has seen the currency stabilise and begin to appreciate. The USDOLLAR has now shifted up a gear. Technically speaking there are a number of positives to the weekly chart above. The USDOLLAR has moved above its black 30-week…

  • The New ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the EURUSD

    The ECB Changes Monetary Policy Strategy to Symmetric Target On 8 July the ECB announced its new monetary policy strategy of symmetric 2% inflation over the medium term. The target is symmetric in that any deviation, be it positive or negative, is regarded as "equally undesirable." Market participants were eager to learn more and there was a keen focus on the ECB statement and President's Lagarde's press conference on 22…

  • Fully Recovered? Australia’s Economy Surpasses Pre-pandemic Levels

    Australia's economy is officially above pre-pandemic levels. Economic activity has bounced back in the past two quarters. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.8 per cent in the March quarter of 2021. But will continued State lockdowns see that growth continue? The news was delivered on June 2nd, in parliament by Josh Frydenberg, Australia's Treasurer: ''Todays national accounts, show that Australian…

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