BTC/USD dropped after the Fed’s latest jumbo rate hike on Wednesday, but shows resiliency to the hawkish commentary, trying to avoid a losing week

The market will listen to the statement's tone and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. How it is perceived will be market-moving. The real rate looks to be setting up for a trough (green arrow). If so, bitcoin may be charting a peak. I.e. if the tone is hawkish and the real rate moves up, bitcoin is likely to come under pressure.

BTC/USD is having a good week as sentiment shows improvement and the US Dollar slides, but key data from the US loom

As long as inflation remains a worry and the prospect for higher rates persists, demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, will be facing headwinds.

Bollinger Bands suggest a volatility cycle that oscillates between band squeezes and expansions. For example, the previous four times, the Bollinger Width dropped below 0.1 (green dashed verticals), significant volatility increases followed, with the cryptocurrency declining meaningfully.

Interestingly, the recent drop in the greenback (blue vertical) has benefitted the NAS100 more than the cryptocurrency. Given BTCUSD's recent resiliency, we would have expected it to have had a more robust response to the dollar's movement. Instead, the NAS100 has risen by 5.6% compared with Bitcoin's 4.6%, showing its relative strength.

BTC/USD extends yesterday’s gains as sentiment shows improvement and the greenback retreats, after its recent Fed-fuel rally

Wednesday's monetary policy decision is weighing heavily on Bitcoin, with the Fed expected to deliver a 75bps hike. There is also nervousness around cryptos in general due to the White House's plans to regulate the industry.

The hotter-than-expected CPI rate yesterday hurt bitcoin. Headline inflation did not fall as much as hoped, and core CPI was much hotter than anticipated. The Fed will continue to hike, and risk-sensitive instruments will remain under pressure, including cryptocurrencies.

BTCUSD is sensitive to interest rates. Yesterday's real rate appreciation (up red arrow) coincides with the decline in Bitcoin (down arrow). As such, it's no surprise that BTCUSD is currently trading below $19K. As long as the daily stochastic remains in its lower quintile, bearish pressure will be present.

Ethereum is about to overhaul its mechanics in an upgrade called "The Merge." The revamp is due around Sept 15 and will transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. This change is greener, using significantly less energy (up to 99% less, according to the Ethereum Foundation), with users validating transactions with tokens instead of mining.