Today's poor economic data will reinforce the market's expectation of a Fed pivot. This despite yesterday's hawkish Fed tone. Core retail sales printed at -0.2% MoM against and expectation of 0.2% and last month's 1.2%.
Manufacturing data also disappointed, coming in at -0.2 MoM. The market forecast was to expand at 0.1% MoM. This data puts pressure on the Fed. If it continues with its aggressive approach, an output gap is all but certain. This suggests that we should not discount a Fed pivot.
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.