The 2s-10s yield curve has been inverted for 9-months and is currently at -107 bps. The last time the yield curve was this far into inversion territory was in the early 1980s. An inverted yield curve often forewarns of an economic recession, as it suggests that investors expect short-term interest rates to fall, and normalise the curve. This can be a signal that the economy is headed for a downturn.

Watch today’s US Open for insights on the dovish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia, persistent hawkish commentary by ECB officials and more, as markets brace for Fed Chair Powell’s Congress testimony

The current housing starts index is weak. It is below its 3-month moving average and heading down. Its RSI is on the bearish side of 50.

The RBA delivered another 25 bps rate increase, but provided a more tame outlook compared to the previous hawkish statement, suggesting the end of the tightening cycle may be near

FXCM senior market specialist, Russ and Nik, discuss several key events for the week. Fed Chair Powell will testify in front of the Senate (Tues) and House (Wed). The market will be eager to hear any hints on rate hikes or the terminal rate. This Friday the jobs data for February will be released. Last data point was a big surprise higher and the market will look here in anticipation.…

China has set a slower-than expected GDP growth target of 5% for this year. The target for last year was 5.5%, but actual GDP growth was only 3%, the second slowest since the 1970s, the Associated Press reported.

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the recent hotter than expected US PCE inflation, the EU/UK trade agreement over Northern Ireland and more

Join FXCM senior market specialists, Russ and Nik, as they discuss the themes driving the markets for this week. In this podcast, the two analysts discuss the Fed minutes that were released last week and how they differed from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Core PCE also came in ahead of expectations, with inflation being a primary driver. Join the discussion for these and more.

Yesterday’s GDP data show that the US economy decelerated at a higher pace than previously reported. Q4 GDP was revised to 2.7%, which is down from the previously reported number of 2.9% and lower than Q3’s 3.2%. The revision is due to lower consumer spending and exports, with personal consumption expenditure up 1.4% compared with the prior forecast of 2.1%.

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on Nvidia’s AI-boosted forward guidance, the FOMC minutes and yesterday’s RBNZ policy decision

The FOMC minutes show that the Fed sees a slowing of inflation, which may support a peak in the federal funds rate this year. However, the minutes were penned before notable data. January’s jobs report was strong, showing an increase of 517,000 in nonfarm payrolls. Inflation was also higher than consensus, with the headline CPI printing at 0.5% m/m.