AUD/USD Upbeat as RBA Governor Keeps 50 bps on the Table

  • AUDUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

AUD/USD Analysis

The pair comes from its first losing week in more than a month and the new one did not start well either, since Antipodeans were weighed by fears over China's elevated Covid-19 cases and the first related deaths in a long time. [1]

AUD/USD had rejected the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2022 High/Low drop and this creates risk for a breach of the EM200 (0.6530), which would put near-term bias back to the downside. This could open the door to further decline towards 0.6380-70, but a fresh catalyst would be likely needed for this and the Aussie seems well protected from there on.

The USDOLLAR is having a poor month as markets contemplate a potential slowdown in the pace of the Fed's aggressive rate-hike cycle, but its Australian counterpart has already lifted the foot off the pedal. The RBA has delivered two straight 25 basis points increases, after a series of bigger 50 bps moves.

However, Inflation data suggest that more work is needed on the tighening front, as CPI surged to 7.3% y/y in Australia in Q3, which is the highest level in thirty-two years. Governor Lowe alluded to this today, as he expects the Board to "increase interest rates further over the period ahead". Furthermore, he kept the larger 50 basis points hike on the table, saying that officials "have not ruled out" such a move. [2]

TradingView Pro

As an FXCM account holder you could get TradingView Pro FREE for 1 year saving over $100.

AUD/USD finds renewed buying interest today helped by the above remarks and the greenback's weakness, which allows it to make another push for 0.6740, although sentiment is still fragile. As such, it does not yet inspire confidence for a broader surge that would take out the 200Days EMA (at mid-0.6800s)

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 22 Nov 2022 https://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202211/22/content_WS637c3e83c6d0a757729e3866.html

2

Retrieved 26 Nov 2022 https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-gov-2022-11-22.html

Disclosure

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.

Risk Warning: Our service includes products that are traded on margin and carry a risk of losses in excess of your deposited funds. The products may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

${getInstrumentData.name} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${getInstrumentData.exchange}

${getInstrumentData.bid} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}