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- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.us) has quietly outpaced the S&P 500 since the Iran conflict began, and the technical picture is now strengthening. Momentum is building, with RSI turning higher and moving averages beginning to tilt into a bullish alignment.
- Pfizer (PFE.us) is quietly stealing the spotlight, holding firm while the S&P 500 slides and still clocking a solid ~7% gain year-to-date.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM.us) is showing strong technical momentum, with bullish EMA alignment and an RSI that confirms underlying strength, while the stock has surged more than 30% year-to-date.

Quick Market Overview

Stocks rallied sharply after a shift in tone from President Trump raised hopes of a possible easing in the Middle East conflict, lifting all major US indices to their best session in weeks. The move was driven by optimism that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could ease, sending oil prices lower and boosting risk appetite. However, markets remain highly sensitive to headlines, with volatility still elevated and investors looking for clearer signs of a lasting resolution. Until then, swings driven by geopolitical developments are likely to continue.

Energy Spike Forces Markets Into a Policy Trap

Markets are struggling to find stability as the Middle East conflict pushes oil prices higher and removes the usual safety nets for investors. Stocks have declined for several weeks, while bonds and gold have failed to provide protection, leaving cash as the main refuge. Rising energy costs are also shifting expectations for interest rates, with central banks turning more cautious as inflation risks build. The key concern is that sustained high oil prices could force policymakers into a difficult trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting growth, raising the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

General Equity Market Health (SPX500)

The 6,500 level remains a key area of support. It carries psychological significance, and a break below it would be a clear negative signal. Momentum is already leaning bearish, with the RSI sitting below 50, indicating underlying downside pressure.

Since the escalation in the Middle East, the SPX500 has declined by roughly 4.4%, reinforcing the cautious tone in the market.

Yesterday's price action adds to the uncertainty. The formation of a long-legged spinning top reflects a highly volatile session and a lack of conviction from either side. Bears initially drove the index down to 6,431 but failed to maintain control, while bulls pushed it up to 6,696 before also losing momentum. Neither side was able to take charge, but the market did close above its open.

The next move now hinges on who regains control. A bearish continuation would put 6,500 firmly in focus as a critical test, while a bullish push would bring resistance at 6,710 into play.

A Positive Relative Strength

In this week's AlphaTrack, we highlight stocks that have outperformed the S&P 500 during the Middle East conflict, noting that while caution remains key, relative strength can help shield portfolios from downside.

Potential Trade Setups

Advanced Micro Devices. (AMD.us)

Technical Analysis
- AMD's EMAs have crossed to the upside (black circle).
- Watch the angle and widening of these averages, as stronger separation would reinforce the bullish view.
- The RSI has pushed above 50 (blue arrow), suggesting momentum is turning positive.
- It needs to hold above this level to continue supporting higher prices.
- Key support sits at 190 (green horizontal line).

Caveat
- A drop back below 50 on the RSI would signal fading momentum.
- A break below 190 support would be a negative development.
- If both occur together, the bullish setup is effectively invalidated.

Fundamental Perspective
AMD is positioning itself at the centre of the AI infrastructure buildout, backed by major long-term deals such as its multi-year agreement to supply up to $60bn of chips to Meta. While much of that revenue will only ramp from late 2026, the deal signals growing confidence from hyperscalers and reinforces AMD's expanding role in data centres, where demand remains strong. It is not yet on par with Nvidia, but as a credible alternative in a supply-constrained market, AMD offers exposure to the AI theme with meaningful upside if execution continues to improve.

Pfizer (PFE.us)

Technical Analysis
- PFE has shown positive relative strength during the conflict period and is up over 7% year to date.
- The chart reflects a sideways trading pattern.
- With no clear trend, EMAs offer limited insight as they are trend-following indicators.
- The RSI is hovering around 50 (blue rectangle), reinforcing the range-bound setup.
- Key support sits at 26.50 (green horizontal line).

Caveats
- A break below 26.50 would be a concern.
- If the RSI falls below 50 and stays there, momentum may be turning bearish.

Fundamental Perspective
PFE has quietly held up better than much of the broader market since the Iran conflict began, reflecting a clear shift toward defensive positioning. As geopolitical tension pushes oil higher and drives volatility, investors are rotating away from cyclical growth and into more stable sectors like healthcare. Pfizer sits firmly in that camp, supported by strong cash flow, a high dividend, and relatively defensive earnings. It's not about explosive upside, it's about resilience, and in a market being pushed around by headlines, that kind of stability is starting to attract capital again. Pfizer yields about 6.43%, making it one of the higher-yielding names in the S&P 500.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.us)

Technical Analysis
- XOM's EMAs are in a bullish formation, with strong angle and clear separation.
- The RSI is comfortably above 50, signalling solid underlying momentum.
- Price is trading just above the 160 resistance level.
- A decisive break above 160 would be bullish and could signal another leg higher.

Caveat
- XOM's strength is closely tied to oil; if the geopolitical premium fades and crude declines, the stock could unwind quickly.
- Failure to break cleanly above 160 would be an early warning sign.
- If the RSI then drops below 50 and 160 caps price, momentum would be fading.
- This scenario becomes more likely if the Strait of Hormuz situation stabilises.

Fundamental Perspective
XOM has emerged as a clear winner in 2026, driven by one simple dynamic: higher oil prices in a more uncertain world. As geopolitical tension lifts crude, Exxon's low-cost production in the Permian and Guyana allows it to convert that strength into real cash flow, while years of cost discipline amplify the upside. The company is pairing that operational strength with aggressive shareholder returns, including tens of billions in dividends and buybacks, giving investors both income and exposure to the energy cycle. It's still a cyclical name, but right now, it's one of the most efficient vehicles for monetising elevated oil prices. However, the company's strength is still tied to oil prices, so if the geopolitical premium fades and crude falls, earnings and the stock can unwind just as quickly.

Hot News, Cold Logic

Oil prices edged higher after a sharp sell-off as investors weighed mixed signals around the Iran conflict. Optimism from President Trump about possible progress briefly pushed prices lower, but markets remain sceptical after Iran denied any negotiations. Ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping concerns about supply alive, leaving oil supported despite hopes for de-escalation.

Final Thought

Markets are being driven by a single, dominant force: geopolitics. The Iran conflict has pushed oil back above $100, disrupted global supply routes and reignited inflation fears, forcing a sharp repricing in rates as markets pivot from expecting cuts to contemplating tighter policy.

In this environment, markets are no longer climbing on liquidity but navigating an energy-driven shock, yet as volatility rises and sentiment fractures, history suggests that when uncertainty peaks, the foundations of the next sustained opportunity are quietly being laid.