FXCM Market Talk – Your Trading & Finance Podcast (Ep. 65)
065 – What a difference a week makes in the markets
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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065 – What a difference a week makes in the markets
The US non-farm employment change data shows that 517K jobs were created in January. It was a surprise to the upside and exceeded the most optimistic forecast. The unemployment rate declined further to 3.4%.
FXCM’s Brent CFD, UKOil, and its WTI CFD, USOil, have charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak. This is an uptrend. However, this week has seen decline.
The ECB hiked rates by 50bps today, maintaining that another 50bps is coming in March. However, the press conference delivered by president Lagarde proved to be confusing. Besides, obscure phrases like “continuity in a steady state”, she pointed to data dependency and a “meeting by meeting” approach. This suggests the 50bps in March is not a done deal. The market interpreted the press conference as dovish and the EURUSD sold…
Job Openings and Labour Turnover came in yesterday ahead of expectations. It printed at 11.01m, ahead of the 10.28m forecast. JOLTS data is lagging and includes full-time and part-time vacancies. This makes its interpretation murky.
The precious metal is moving as Fed Chair Powell did little to push back on market sentiment at yesterday’s press conference. Powell acknowledged that the disinflation process has started. Yields and the dollar fell and gold is benefitting from the lower greenback.
The Fed hiked rates by 25 bps yesterday. However, the Fed chair, perhaps mistakenly, loosened markets when he stated, “If we feel like we’ve gone too far, and inflation is coming down faster than we expect, then we have tools that would work on that.” The press conference offered little pushback against current market thinking. This caused risk assets to rally, and money to rotate out of safety, e.g., FXCM’s…
USDOLLAR showed resilience over the last few trading sessions. Yesterday showed a crack. There is a risk of heightened dollar volatility.
The potential for a wage spiral seems exaggerated. The employment cost index is 1.0% q/q. This is lower than the forecast of 1.1% q/q and the previous 1.2% q/q. Tomorrow, the Fed will hike by 25bps and release its statement. The lower than anticipated costs will be welcomed by the central bank.
Heading towards the Fed release on Wednesday a sense of caution prevails. Despite the market looking for a pivot, the Fed has maintained an aggressive stance.
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