065 – What a difference a week makes in the markets
- NFP 517K vs 190K forecast.
- Unemployment 3.5%-->3.4%
- Wage data came in as forecast at 0.3% m/m.
- PMI non-manufacturing data is strongly back above 50.
- Fed raises rated by 25bps on Wed.
- Hawkish but more relaxed.
- Powell talked about the disinflation process.
- Did not validate December projections.
- Offered little push back against the market.
- Opened the door to potential pivot (in case of overshoot).
- Following NFP, terminal rate is pushed back one month, and markets sees 5.25%.
- Employment coming back into focus: will unemployment increase.
- ECB: raised by 50bps and committed to another 50bps in March in statement.
- Intentions are to hike passed March.
- President Lagarde acknowledged more balanced risks to inflation outlook.
- ECB likely more hawkish than Fed.
- BoE: No surprises but unclear guidance.
- Softened communication but didn't signal pause.
- Comment – may be at the turning point but not necessarily done.
- Powell: moderated discussion Economic Club of Washington (Tuesday).
- RBA cash rate: 25bps after recent inflation surprise?
- Williams (NY Fed president) interview with Nick Timiraos on Wed.
- UK GDP on Fri.
- China/US relations are strained after US shoots down "spy" balloon.
- Tech Earnings: BP, Disney. Last week Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple.
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.