AlphaTrack – Weak Jobs Raise the Stakes for Inflation
The SPX500 remains bullish on strong earnings and positive momentum, but inflation, yields and oil now hold the key to whether the rally can extend.
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The SPX500 remains bullish on strong earnings and positive momentum, but inflation, yields and oil now hold the key to whether the rally can extend.
The tech-heavy index is on track for new records fuelled by the AI boom, but a negative market reaction to the latest AI earnings weighs today.
The SPX500 is closing in on record highs, powered by strong earnings and oil-price relief, but rising yields and inflation risks still threaten the breakout.
Warsh’s decision to let markets do more of the Fed’s work has pushed long-term yields higher while raising fresh doubts about his inflation-fighting credibility.
USDOLLAR’s next move depends on whether higher rate expectations and safe-haven demand outweigh doubts about Fed credibility and the growth risks from Hormuz.
With support cracking and valuations stretched, the SPX500 now faces a decisive test from the Fed, inflation data and Big Tech earnings.
JPN225 offers investors far more reward for taking equity risk than SPX500, but that advantage comes with heavy exposure to technology, semiconductors and AI.
Apple is betting on new leadership and a major product refresh to revive innovation, regain AI momentum and rekindle excitement around its ecosystem.
The SPX500 is coiling between 7,420 and 7,580, with earnings season likely to determine whether weak momentum gives way to a breakout or sharper pullback.
Big Tech must prove that record AI spending can generate sustainable free cash flow.
Intel reports earnings on July 23 amid a massive rally fuelled by the AI boom that increases the need for its CPUs. Still, the turnaround faces challenges amid execution risks and industry headwinds.
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