USOIL Tests Key Resistance, Helped by US Inventory Drop
USOIL Analysis
The US Fed moderated the pace of tightening, raising its terminal rate projection, while lowering its GDP forecasts, now expecting an anemic growth of 0.5% in the next year [1]. This hawkish stance by the central bank of the world's largest consumer of oil, along with similar approach by the ECB weighed on oil prices, but USOil managed to overcome those pressures.
Helped by encouraging demand forecasts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), it managed to close last week with profits. During the current week it extends its gains, as US crude oil inventories registered a surprise drop of 5.9 million barrels last week, according to yesterday's data. [2]
USOil now tries to take out a critical confluence of hurdles, posed by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the November high/December low drop. Successful effort will open the door to 84.70, but taking that level out and looking towards 90.00 may prove elusive in the near term.
Aggressive stance by major central banks, prospect of an economic slowdown and the Covid-19 situation in China, which remains tough, may limit the upside. Furthermore, the Relative Strength index is at the most overbought levels in two months. As such, USOil is vulnerable to pressure back to mid-73.00s, but sustained weakness below the 70.00 handle continues to look difficult.
Markets now turn a series of key economic releases from the US, which includes today's final Q3 GDP and the PCE Inflation report tomorrow, for the next leg of the move.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 22 Dec 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20221214.htm | |
| Retrieved 24 Mar 2023 https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf |
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.