USD/JPY Hits New 24-Year Highs Ahead of Fed Minutes, US CPI
USD/JPY Analysis
The US Federal does not deviate from its aggressive tightening path, as its hawkishness is reasserted by recent commentary. Fed Vice-Chair Brainard said on Monday, that monetary policy "will be restrictive for some time" in order for inflation to return to target. [1]
Ms Mester echoed these remarks yesterday, speaking on Bloomberg and added that inflation "is likely to remain high for some time". However, she has not made her mind up yet, as to whether she will vote for 50 or 75 basis points hike next month. [2]
Markets are currently pricing in a 75 bps move by the Fed for the upcoming meeting, with CME's assigning nearly 80% probability to this outcome [3]. This is supportive of the US Dollar, sending the pair its sixth straight day of profits and fresh twenty-four year highs.
USD/JPY has moved beyond the September 22 peak (145.90) that has caused the Japanese authorities to intervene to the FX market and had led the term to brief but intense slump. At the time of writing, no intervention has been announced, but caution is needed, in case authorities decide to step in again.
Aside of that, markets brace for the release of the Fed's minutes later today and the latest US CPI Inflation figures on Thursday.
From a technical prospective, bulls now take a step closer to the 1998 high (147.90), but its probably early to talk about further strength that would tackle 152.20. On the other hand, the move looks overextended and pressure back towards 143.52-142.90 could be in the cards, although a strong catalyst will be required for a test of the ascending tend line from the August lows ((at around 140.00).
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 12 Oct 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20221010a.htm | |
| Retrieved 12 Oct 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch | |
| Retrieved 15 Apr 2026 https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html# |
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