Economies

UK headline CPI came in above 10%; forecasts were for a single digit print. EUR CPI also suggest sticky elements to inflation. ECB and Fed official’s commentary were hawkish in nature. The job market is still tight but initial unemployment claims have started to tick up. Markets will be looking at US GDP and core PCE for direction. This week includes Government Ueda’s first BoJ meeting and it is a…

The latest data shows that the LEI declined by 1.2% in March to 108.4. This follows a decline of 0.5% in February. From September 2022 to March 2023, the LEI was down 4.5%, which is steeper than the 3.5% decline for the previous six months.

Given the size of its contribution to GDP, monitoring the health of consumption is important. By and large there are worrying signs. Total vehicle sales and underemployment are showing fragility in terms of their momentum and chain store sales are negative. The existing homes sales series has bounced somewhat but is yet to pass the threshold implying an underlying positive momentum. Consumer sentiment has turned positive but there is a…

The Chinese GDP grew by 4.5% y/y in the first quarter, which along with other upbeat data today, show that the economic recovery maintains its momentum

In March, retail sales decreased by 1%, surpassing economists' predictions for a 0.4% decline. This suggests that consumers are feeling the impact of a more challenging economic climate. There was a decline in purchases of big-ticket items such as motor vehicles. This suggests that higher interest rates are causing the economy to lose momentum at the end of the first quarter. The previous month's data was revised, indicating that retail…

Gold has breached the psychological $2,000 level and has an underlying positive momentum. The precious metal was up over 7% in March with its all-time high of 2,074 now in sight. It’s appreciated over 25% since its November 2021 low.

FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket appears to be charting a head and shoulders top. This pattern is a reversal in trend from uptrend to downtrend. The pattern is yet to complete, and we note the pattern completion gap i.e., the price to neckline gap. However, the weekly RSI is below 50 (green rectangle), which suggests a bearish momentum is present. The longer the indicator maintains below 50, the more pressure will be…

It fell to 50, which separates expansion from contraction for February, from 51.60, which was an eight-month high.

The pair slides after factory activity in China eased and heads towards the conclusion of a mixed month, awaiting today’s UC PCE inflation update

The Federal Reserve is facing one of its toughest decisions yet in terms of interest rates due to recent banking turmoil. Although the Fed had been preparing for another data-driven rate hike just a few weeks ago, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led to a banking panic that has made the decision more complicated. As the Fed meets, officials must carefully consider how much weight to give the…

The Fed's balance sheet increased at the same time that FXCM's US.BANKS basket declined. This, as the confidence crisis in the banking sector unfolded.