President Trump provides Iran update: oil and gold react
Trump war update
President Trump's Wednesday address came as markets were growing optimistic about an end to the war. This sentiment was aided by the President's post about Iran asking for a ceasefire [1] and his comments that operations would conclude in two or three weeks. [2]
President Trump stressed that strategic objectives are "nearing completion", the US is going to finish the job "very fast" and that discussions for a deal with Tehran are "ongoing". However, he refrained from giving a firm timeline, threatening escalation instead. [3]
He said that the United States will hit Iran "extremely hard, over the next two to three weeks". He added that although they have not done so far, they could still strike Iran's oil infrastructure if no deal is made. Moreover, President Trump did not provide any timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying that countries that depend on it should "take care of that passage" and that once the conflict is over it will "open up naturally".
Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson had earlier dismissed the claim that Tehran had requested a ceasefire, according to local media [4]. A few days prior, he had also rejected US proposals for a deal as excessive and unreasonable. [5]
Iran's defiance and Trump's hard line are rattling markets again. The lack of a concrete timeline for ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz renews fears over the flow of oil and the broader economic fallout. As a result, USOil rises and XAU/USD declines today.
USOIL analysis
The geopolitical risk premium remains elevated as the Middle East conflict continues and hopes for an imminent conclusion were dashed after President Trump's address. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, energy infrastructure across the region is damaged and production is halted as storage facilities fill up. The longer these disruptions continue, the market tightens and the previously unfavorable fundamentals can be overturned.
USOil rises again today, maintaining its bullish bias, holding above $100 per barrel and on track for new highs. Still, it remains vulnerable to a move below the EMA200 that would negate the upside momentum.
Sustained high oil prices could hit the global economy and eventually lead to demand destruction. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned this week that "all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth" [6]. Furthermore, a well-supplied market may be able to absorb the shock relatively quickly once the war ends and flows are restored. In its most recent monthly report, the IEA still expects output to surpass demand growth this year. [7]
XAU/USD analysis
The precious metal ends its four-day rebound and declines today amid fresh uncertainty over the conclusion of the Middle East conflict. Gold has suffered during the war as the USDOLLAR has emerged as the safe haven of choice, while inflationary risks and higher-for-longer Fed expectations have compounded this dynamic.
XAU/USD has rejected the EMA200, remaining vulnerable to deeper declines and a return to bear territory against this unfavourable backdrop. Nonetheless, there is scope for a rebound above the EMA200 that could restore the bullish outlook.
The structural pillars of the gold bull case remain standing. Central bank buying continues unabated, de-dollarisation trends are alive and currency debasement remains an ongoing reality. Moreover, Fed Chair Powell adopted a measured tone on inflation [8] and the central bank may yet choose to look through energy-driven price pressures. This case could grow stronger under the next Chair, who may be more attuned to President Trump's preference for lower borrowing costs.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116329512466946656 | |
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch | |
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch | |
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/01/766191/pezeshkian-letter-American-people | |
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/30/3552529/iran-refutes-any-talks-with-us | |
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance | |
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026 | |
| Retrieved 02 Apr 2026 https://www.reuters.com/business/horns-an-inflation-growth-dilemma-fed-chair-powell-speak-harvard-2026-03-30/ |
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