Oil Prices Slip on Inventory Build & IEA’s Upgraded Supply Outlook
USOIL Analysis
Continued hostilities the Middle East, this key energy hub, have helped USOil make a good start to the year. It takes another crack at the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci of the Q4 slump, which bring the 84.90 handle in the spotlight, but we are cautious around the ascending prospects. Any strength appears to be driven by supply disruptions, rather than demand creation, a force that has its limitations.
In fact the International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that the pace of demand expansion is "set to decelerate further", to 1.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) this year (from +2.3 mbpd in 2023, according to today's monthly report). More to it, the agency believes that supply should "more than eclipse" the demand rise. IEA hiked its supply growth forecast to 1.7 mbpd (from +1.5 mbpd previously) [1]. Furthermore, Wednesday's data from the US Energy information Administration revealed a massive jump in inventories last week, to the tune of twelve million barrels.
USOil rejected the critical 38.2% Fibonacci for second time this year. This keeps the December lows in play (67.69), but strong catalyst would needed for a test.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 17 Apr 2026 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2024 |
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