NZD/USD Rises on Heightened NZ Inflation Expectations
NZD/USD - H4
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released its quarterly Survey of expectations, showing annual CPI growth of 3.7% 1 year out (from 3.02% prior) and 2.96% 2 years out (up from 2.27% prior). The report also revelaed mean interest rate (OCR) expectation for the end of the current quarter at 0.75, representing a 25bps increase from current levels. [1]
These expectations make a more compelling case for the central bank to increase interest rates again when it meets on November 24, following last month's first rate hike (to 0.5%) in seven year's.
NZD/USD popped as a result, eying the 0.7075-81, where we encounter the EMA200 (black line) and the weekly highs. A break above this level will allow to challenge 0.7929-35. The bullish cross of the slow stochastic and the contrarian SSI switch back to net short, point to potential for sustained gains.
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
On the other, hand the upside clearly has some significant hurdles and a look at shorter time-frames (H1) reveals overbought conditions. This can create selling pressure, but fresh monthly lows (0.6978) that will expose it to the ascending trendline from this year's lows (currently at around 0.6930), will require a catalyst.
In the absence of any major economic releases today, the pair's move will likely be determined by investor sentiment and we will be on the lookout for any news around Oil and the strategic reserves talk.
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 20 Apr 2026 https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/m14 |
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