Market Threads: Calm Before the Storm?
Tracking important market threads across currencies, commodities, and indices.
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Cross-Asset View
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Oil
Technical Analysis
The left chart shows FXCM's Brent proxy (UKOIL), while the right displays its WTI proxy (USOIL). Both remain in bearish EMA formations, though UKOIL's averages are beginning to converge (blue arrow). Its RSI is hovering near 50, and sustained movement around that level would point to consolidation.
USOIL, by contrast, retains a clear downside bias. Its EMAs remain decisively bearish, with strong angle and separation, while the RSI is still firmly below 50, signalling continued downside momentum.
Fundamental Perspective
The Iran conflict remains the dominant driver. President Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely, while Iran has indicated it has received "some sign" that the US may lift its blockade, potentially reopening the door to peace talks. That said, despite the ceasefire, the US continues to block Iranian ships until discussions are concluded one way or another.
This ongoing back-and-forth, and the resulting constraint on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, is driving the convergence in UKOIL's EMAs. Clear progress towards a lasting agreement would likely ease that pressure.
While there are signs of progress towards renewed negotiations, any escalation would almost certainly push oil prices higher.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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