IEA Sees Potential Threat of Supply Shock Due to Russian Disruptions, USOIL Supported

Sanctions on Russia

Western countries have imposed a series of sweeping sanctions against Russia, as a retaliation for invading Ukraine, but had been reluctant to go for the jugular and impose an embargo on oil and energy.

Last week however, US President Biden escalated sanctions and banned imports of Russian oil, gas and coal, "targeting the main artery of Russia's economy' . Despite relatively limited US reliance on Russian energy, this action is not without domestic consequences, with President Biden having warned that the move would have "cost" for the US as well.

Things are more difficult for European countries, since they rely heavily on Russian energy and as such, they refrained from an outright ban. Instead, the EU Commission unveiled a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030 ^[2]. The United Kingdom also took action, announcing its intention to phase out the import of Russian oil during the course of the year. ^[3]

Furthermore, major energy companies have backed away from Russia, such as Shell, which announced its intent to exit the partnership with Gazprom and stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil, as the first step to its withdrawal from the country. ^[4]

IEA Monthly Report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil report earlier today and warned the sanctions against Russia and the surge in commodity prices could "depress' global economic activity and downgraded its world oil demand forecast for 2Q22-4Q22. ^[5]

Russia is the world's largest oil exporter and IEA warned that the prospect of production disruptions is creating a threat of a global oil supply shock, estimating that from next month, three million barrels/day of Russian oil output could be shut in "as sanctions take hold and buyers shun exports".

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, such as Russia, which has come to be known as OPEC+ has not taken any action to stabilize the market after the recent surge in prices. It stack to its output plan and the gradual production increases, perhaps hoping to an agreement in the negotiations around Iran's nuclear program, that would lift the embargo on its oil.

IEA's report notes that "any additional supplies from Iran could be months off" and that a successful outcome in the negotiations could result in around 1 million barrels/day of exports, over a six-month period,

USOIL

The war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia led to a rally in oil prices, with USOIL rising to its highest levels since July 2008 last week (129.46). It has been retracing though after that, erasing around 12% during the current week.

Yesterday, it closed below the EMA200 (black line) and this creates risk for further decline, but fresh catalyst will be likely for a move below the broader 88.00-80.00 area. This is an important region that can contain the correction, since it includes the 200 Days and 200H4s EMAs, as well as the ascending trend-line from December's lows.

Although it gives up some of its gains, the commodity is profitable today, while the Relative Strength Index is close to oversold levels. This gives it the chance to return above 100.00, but we are a bit cautious at this stage about its ability to set new weekly highs (109.73).