EUR/USD Tries to Hold Key Support & Stop its 2-Weeks Losing Streak
EUR/USD Analysis
The European Central Bank (ECB) has out-hawked its US counterpart, since it raised rates again by 0.5% earlier this month, intends to deliver another hikes of the same size and President Lagarde said that they will not stop there. [1]
The US Federal Reserve on the other hand has already moderated the pace tightening over the last two meetings, as inflation has been on a downward path and Chair Powell has recently acknowledged that a "disinflationary process" has begun [1]. Furthermore, the December dot-plot forecasts a median terminal rate of 5.1%, implying another 50 basis points worth of hikes. [3]
Expectations for a less aggressive Fed and very hawkish stance by the ECB have helped EUR/USD to a four-month recovery, which culminated to the highest levels since April at the start of the month.
The past two weeks though have been negative, due to a repricing in market expectations around the Fed's policy path, fueled by that blockbuster jobs report, the higher than expected latest CPI inflation data and persistent hawkish rhetoric by policymakers.
At the time of writing, CME's FedWatch Tool assigns the highest probability to a terminal rate of 5.5%, which is more aggressive that the fed's forecast, although still leaving room for cuts towards the end the year. [4]
EUR/USD has been testing the critical 23.6% Fibonacci of the September low/February high advance and daily closes below it can spark a deeper correction to the 38.2% level (1.0481-51). However, the downside seems well protected and we struggle to see a steeper slump that would breach the ascending trendline form the September lows (1.0290).
Despite the recent slide, EUR/USD is resilient and has defended the critical 23.6% Fibonacci support three times already. So far, this is a limited correction that allows the common currency to strike back and challenge 1.1067, but will likely need a catalyst for that.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 16 Feb 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2023/html/ecb.is230202~4313651089.en.html | |
| Retrieved 16 Feb 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf | |
| Retrieved 07 Jun 2023 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html |
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