EUR/USD Retreats Amidst Geopolitical Woes
EUR/USD - H4
Fresh fears of war in Ukraine had boosted safe havens such as the US Dollar late on Friday, which remain in demand as markets continue to monitor the situation during the beginning of the week, with Europe being dependent on Russian gas.
Earlier today, the Embassy of Ukraine in the UK, clarified that there is no change for its NATO membership plans, after report that the Ambassador might contemplate withdrawing its objective of joining NATO - if it averted war. [1]
On Sunday US national security adviser Jake Sullivan reiterated that "we are in the window" for a Russian invasion in Ukraine and that "a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now". [2]
US President Biden and Russian President Putin spoke on the phone over the weekend, but there was "no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks", according Senior US official.
On the central banking front, San Francisco Fed President Ms Daly said that "the most important thing is to be measured at our pace and importantly, data dependent" when a sked about a 50 bps rate increase in March, in a CBS Face the Nation interview yesterday. Ms Daly is not a voter this year. [4]
The economic calendar is rather light today, but Ms Lagarde speaks in the European Parliament later in the day and Fed's Bullard (hawk) is also on tap, while caution is needed for fresh geopolitical developments/news.
EUR/USD breaks below its EMA200 (black line) and is now exposed to 61.8% Fibonacci of its last leg up (1.1259), but fresh impetus may be required for a larger decline that will threaten 1.1185.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to oversold condition and the common currenccan find the opportunity reclaim its EMA100 and ease immediate pressure, although a significant improvement in sentiment is needed for a recovery beyond 1.1387-1.1400, thta will put 1.1495-1.1500 back in play.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 14 Feb 2022 https://twitter.com/UkrEmbLondon/status/1493130402835406848 | |
| Retrieved 14 Feb 2022 https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/13/politics/jake-sullivan-cnntv/index.html | |
| Retrieved 12 Apr 2026 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-san-francisco-fed-ceo-mary-daly-face-the-nation-02-13-2022/ |
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