EUR/GBP Faces Difficulties After Last Week’s ECB-Fueled Surge
EUR/GBP – H4
Last week the Bank of England delivered its second hike in a row, bringing rates at 0.5%, with four out of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members, voting for a larger increase to 0.75%.
This caused the pair's drop to twelve-month low, but shortly after the BoE's announcement, the European Central Bank took up the baton. The ECB did not make any policy changes and is far from raising rates, but Ms Lagarde did not rule out hikes this year, constituting a hawkish shift in tone.
This sparked a EUR/GBP rally that led to its best week since March 2021, but the current one is accompanied by a retreat. Ms Lagarde walked back those comments to a certain extend in her EU Parliament testimony, while BoE member Hugh Pill who had voted with the majority on Thursday, also struck a moderate tone today, advocating in favor of a "more measured and data-dependent approach". [1]
EUR/GBP is on the back foot this week, vulnerable to the EMA200 and the 0.8390-79 area. A convincing break would shift immediate bias to the downside, but it may be early for a test of 0.8337-22.
Above the EMA200, the common currency does not lose the initiative and can push for new 2022 high (0.8479), but it does not inspire confidence at this stage for taking out the 200Days EMA (at around 0.8520).
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 01 Oct 2023 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2022/monetary-policy-with-a-steady-hand-speech-by-huw-pill.pdf |
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