AUD/USD - H1
The pair enters its third straight losing day and sheds more than 0.5% on the week, having taken a double hit from high US CPI Inflation yesterday and poor Employment data from Australia today.
US Core CPI surged to 4.6%y/y in October versus 4.0%y/y in the previous month, boosting the US Dollar yesterday and market bets for rates hikes in the US.
Today's data showed that the Australian economy lost 46.3K jobs in October and Unemplyment Rate jumped to 5.2% (from 4.6% prior), knocking AUD/USD to fresh month lows.
As such, it breached 61.8% Fibonacci of its September low-October high rise and along with unfavorable Fed/RBA monetary policy differential and current cautious risk tones, the pair is exposed to 0.7253-64, but it may be early for bigger decline that would threaten its October lows (0.7200-0.7191).
On the other hand, the Aussie defended 0.7300 and reacts higher as the European session approaches, while the RSI bounces from oversold territory. These can lead to a push for the mid-0.7300s, although broader sentiment will need to improve significantly, in order to extend the rebound towards its EMA100 (0.7080-94) – above which the downward momentum would pause.
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.