Russell Shor

A bearish turn of the EMAs and stochastic (black ellipses) at this confluence may prove problematic. If the stochastic crosses and heads towards the 20 levels, the pressure will be building downwards. Moreover, if it reaches and maintains (red arrow), GBPUSD will be in danger of another leg down.

As the real risk-free yield increased, investors' required rate of return has followed suit. This mechanism has weighed heavily on the US30, as its present value adjusted downwards in response.

The bond market has capitulated as yields appreciated. As such, there may be interest in the bond market. If so, this may be the catalyst for the overbought normalisation.

The BoE hiked its official bank rate by 50bps to 2.25%. Three of the nine MPC members voted for 75bps, with one member preferring a 25bps move. Furthermore, the central bank expects an 11% inflation rate in October, reduced from 13%. However, the bank statement maintained, "should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the Committee will respond forcefully."

Japanese authorities have intervened and defended the yen, stopping a potential capitulation by USDJPY to 150. As a result, selling into the market began near the 145.75 level, pushing the price down to 140.64. This action comes after BoJ's Kuroda reiterated to continue monetary easing, initially sparking a selloff in the yen. Given this, it will be unsurprising if the Japanese Finance Ministry regularly influence price levels over the medium…

The currency pair weakened following an announcement by Russian President Putin of a partial mobilisation of troops, calling on 300,000 reservists. Recently, Russia has lost ground to the Ukrainian forces.

The NAS100 is sensitive to interest rate movements due to the time value of money. As such, tomorrow's Fed hike is creating headwinds.

Gold has been under pressure since real rates turned positive in late April. The market expects an aggressive Fed tomorrow, weighing on the precious metal.

Last week's CPI numbers showed resilient inflation. This surprised markets and introduced 100bps as an option for the Fed. Join FXCM Market Specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss this, the new terminal rate, and the chances of the Fed overshooting. The two specialists also examine the yield inversion and discuss the BoJ's monetary policy. Please join us for these and more.

The current inflation tends to have a broad sticky element to it. This price resilience will likely concern the Fed until it shows moderation. However, per the preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations survey, consumer expectations moderated to 4.6% (4.8% - previous). Moreover, the pricing elements from last week's Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing Indexes indicate moderation. Therefore, 75bps seems to make more sense at this stage.

The US 02-yr Treasury note jumped today, trading at levels last seen in November 2007. It's trading near 3.85%, reflecting market expectations of at least a 75bps hike next week. Some participants have discussed a 100bps increase, reflecting as a 26% probability presently.