USOIL Tepid After OPEC+ Maintained Status Quo

  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

OPEC and allies such as Russia, a group that is often is referred to as OPEC+, has been adding 0.4 million barrels of oil per day to the markets, every month since August.

Yesterday's 24th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting reconfirmed this adjustment plan, since the group agreed to increase production by another 400,000 barrels per day in February. [1]

Members have resisted calls for more generous increases due to surging inflation and don't seem overly concerned by the spread of the Omicron variant.

Tuesday's data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a large drop of 6.432 million barrels in Oil Stockpiles, for the week ending in December 31, while today we expect the figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Over the weekend, the National Oil Corporation of Libya had announced a reduction of 200K barrels/day for a week, due to maintenance operations. [2]

USOIL rallied more than 50% in 2021, with just three negative months, the worst of which was November. In October, it had registered its highest price since late 2014 (85.42).

After November's steep correction the commodity regained its poise and returned back above the EMA200 in late December, while the new year has started on the front foot. This has brought 79.23-96 in its crosshairs, but the multi-year high from October appears distant at this stage.

Despite the year's upbeat start, USOIL faces headwinds today and we could see pressure back to the EMA200 (74.26-73.89). A break below, would pause the upward momentum, but such a move would likely require a strong catalyst, while the broader 71.18-70.00 region concentrates important supports.


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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 05 Jan 2022 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/6766.htm

2

Retrieved 23 Jan 2022 https://noc.ly/index.php/en/new-4/7565-the-national-oil-corporation-announces-that-it-has-been-decided,-starting-from-midnight-of-sunday,-january-2,-2022,-and-at-00-01,-to-conduct-the-necessary-maintenance-operations-for-the-main-crude-oil-pumping-line-linking-between-the-fields-of-samah-al-dh

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