USOIL Rebounds As Markets Monitor Iran, Ukraine News
Ukraine Developments
Earlier, there were report that Ukrainian government forces had attacked Russian-backed rebels, which had delivered a hit to market sentiment.
At the time of writing, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) that monitors the situation had not issued any report on these news, but Reuters reports that OSCE recorded multiple shelling incidents on Thursday, citing a diplomatic source. [1]
Tension remain high, despite optimism after Thursday Russian announcement of partial troop withdrawal from near the border with Ukraine. The West has refuted those claims, with US State Secretary Blinken noting yesterday that "we continue to see critical units moving toward the border, not away from the border. So what we need to see is exactly the opposite", during an MSNBC interview. [2]
Later in the day, ABC News reported- based on White House official - that Russia has increased its presence along the Ukrainian border by as many as 7,000 troops in the last few days, with some arriving Wednesday. [3]
Iran Nuclear Talks
Negotiations between key western countries and Iran, in regards to its nuclear program, resumed this month, as they try to revive the 2015 Nuclear deal, that would lift sanctions on Iranian oil.
Hopes for a successful outcome were rekindled after Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani twitted yesterday: "After weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though". [4]
USOIL – H4
The commodity ends its two-day slump, due to heightened fears around Ukraine, remaining in the driver's seat. Under these conditions, it has the opportunity to push for new 7+ years high (95.83-94), but fresh catalyst will likely be needed for a larger advance towards and beyond 98.69.
On the other hand, hopes of a deal around Iran's nuclear deal may cap the upside, while potential fresh optimism around Ukraine may lead to renewed pressure. USOIL remains exposed to $90/barrel, but sustained moves below the EMA200 (85.30-86.50) seem to have a high degree of difficulty for now.
Caution is needed, since volatility is high and the commodity's moves are mainly determined by the constant stream of geopolitical news.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 17 Feb 2022 https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-rebels-shelling-osce-idAFS8N2U301W | |
| Retrieved 17 Feb 2022 https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-joe-scarborough-mika-brzezinski-and-willie-geist-of-morning-joe-msnbc/ | |
| Retrieved 17 Feb 2022 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/russia-ukraine/ | |
| Retrieved 29 Nov 2023 https://twitter.com/Bagheri_Kani/status/1494035061007650818 |
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