USD/JPY – H1
The pair comes from its best week since October, boosted by the Fed's monetary tightening prospects, as it is expects to end the asset purchases program in early March and also looks to hike interest rates in the same month. Over the last couple of days, we have seen some Fed officials downplaying chances of a 50 basis point increase, without ruling it out.
During the current week however, USD/JPY loses around 0.5% and today its runs its fifth straight negative day, moving below its EMA100 (black line), putting immediate risk on the downside. This makes it vulnerable to 114.10-00, but bears don't inspire confidence at this stage for a broader push towards and below 113.46.
The move seems a bit overextended though and from these levels we could see an effort to retake the EMA100 (114.90-115.00). This would pause downside risk and could open the door towards mid-115.00s, but it is early for and advance beyond the descending trend-line from January's highs.
Today's economic calendar is light, as only US ADP Employment Change stands out, but things heat over the next two days.
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.