The Real Yield Remains Elevated at Start of Week Supporting the Dollar and Pressuring Risk Markets

  • NAS100

Real Yield


The US 10-year real yield remains elevated at the start of the week. This is putting pressure on the risk market and supporting the dollar as the current preferred haven. The question is how much higher can yields run?

The real yield's RSI has pushed back into overbought territory (green rectangle). This suggests that there is the possibility of a near term ceiling for real yields. This, in turn, may lead to a pullback or consolidation whilst the indicator normalises.


A consolidation in the real yield may filter through to a greenback consolidation at current levels and perhaps a bounce on the risk side of the market. However, we need to see more evidence here.

Currently, the USDOLLAR is positioned in its bullish channel and the NAS100 in its bearish channel. Moreover, the USDOLLAR's stochastic remains above 80 (green rectangle) and the NAS100's around the 20 level (red rectangle). These readings are consistent with USDOLLAR strength and NAS100 weakness and will need to see some release if the situation is to change.

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.