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The Primary Trend The EURUSD monthly below (chart 1) has charted a lower peak followed by a lower trough - the classical definition of a downtrend. Due to the longer time scale, the primary trend for EURUSD is down. Until there is a change in the pair's primary trend, impulse moves down will be stronger than corrective moves up on the lower time frames. The stochastic is heading towards the…
US10Y At Neckline Source: www.tradingview.com Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The US10-Yr Treasury yield is up sharply for the week, currently trading at 1.68%. The nominal rate is now trading at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break above the neckline will effectively complete the reversal pattern and signal that the market is pricing in higher real yields, inflation, or…
Weekly Chart Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The chart above is FXCM's proxy for Brent, UKOil, on a weekly scale. From the mid-August low to the mid-October high, UKOil appreciated around 32%. We have used this impulse move for our reference trough (T) and reference peak (P). Since reaching P, UKOil has retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level (black horizontal). This level is currently…
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The blue vertical is the beginning of November. The precious metal started the month poorly. By the 3rd of November, gold was down about 1.3% (month open to low). However, it charted a reference trough, and almost 48 hours later, it charted the required reference peak. With these two points as an anchor, the precious metal charted a series…
Introduction Since the pandemic high of 2020, the USDOLLAR has followed a structured cycle. There are four distinct phases. 1. Distribution phase. 2. Mark-down phase. 3. Accumulation phase. 4. Mark-up phase. Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. Distribution Phase This phase was uncharacteristically quick. As the pandemic unfolded, margin calls and the demand for dollars by debt-laden emerging economies drove the USD price up. However,…
EURUSD Price Action For November Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The chart above considers the EURUSD H4 scale. The vertical line marks 1 November. Area 1 shows that the month had a bullish start to it, climbing near 65 pips. However, this was short-lived, as the EURD plunged for 10 candlesticks before finding support and rebounding (area 2). However, it stopped short of area…
USOIL has entered its 4th straight negative week and loses around 1% today, weighed by persistently high US inflation and OPEC+ recent dismissal of calls to increase production
UK core inflation printed at 3.4% y/y, higher than the 3.1% forecast. For the Euro, core came in at 2% y/y, less than the consensus of 2.1%. There is also very different communication from each's central bank. At the monetary policy report hearing on Monday, BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, admitted to being "very uneasy' about inflation. Although the BoE did not raise rates at the last meeting, there were two…
Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com In the monthly chart above we show the long term relative strength between the major financial markets post the pandemic lows (dashed blue vertical): 1. Stocks [represented by the S&P 500 (SPX)]. 2. Bonds [represented by the iShares 7-10 Treasury ETF (IEF)]. 3. Commodities [represented by the Thomson Reuters CRB Index (TRJEFFCRB)]. The top chart shows the relative strength…
The UK's 3-month moving average of average earnings (compared with the same period last year) came in at 5.8%. This was higher than the consensus of 5.5%. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, also under the consensus forecast of 4.4%. The inflation numbers will be released tomorrow, and Friday will see retail sales. During yesterday's Monetary Policy Report Hearings, the BoE governor, Andrew Bailey, told MPs that he is "very…
In this article: 1. University of Michigan consumer survey misses consensus. 2. US consumers are gloomy. 3. Inflation is rampant. 4. The Fed may have to pivot on policy. Friday's preliminary consumer sentiment reading from the Univesity of Michigan was sobering. US consumers are hurting. Last month's print was 71.7, and 72.5 was the consensus for Friday's number - it came in at a paltry 66.8. Faced with the prospects…
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