Economies

The Chinese GDP grew by 4.5% y/y in the first quarter, which along with other upbeat data today, show that the economic recovery maintains its momentum

In March, retail sales decreased by 1%, surpassing economists' predictions for a 0.4% decline. This suggests that consumers are feeling the impact of a more challenging economic climate. There was a decline in purchases of big-ticket items such as motor vehicles. This suggests that higher interest rates are causing the economy to lose momentum at the end of the first quarter. The previous month's data was revised, indicating that retail…

Gold has breached the psychological $2,000 level and has an underlying positive momentum. The precious metal was up over 7% in March with its all-time high of 2,074 now in sight. It’s appreciated over 25% since its November 2021 low.

FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket appears to be charting a head and shoulders top. This pattern is a reversal in trend from uptrend to downtrend. The pattern is yet to complete, and we note the pattern completion gap i.e., the price to neckline gap. However, the weekly RSI is below 50 (green rectangle), which suggests a bearish momentum is present. The longer the indicator maintains below 50, the more pressure will be…

It fell to 50, which separates expansion from contraction for February, from 51.60, which was an eight-month high.

The pair slides after factory activity in China eased and heads towards the conclusion of a mixed month, awaiting today’s UC PCE inflation update

The Federal Reserve is facing one of its toughest decisions yet in terms of interest rates due to recent banking turmoil. Although the Fed had been preparing for another data-driven rate hike just a few weeks ago, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led to a banking panic that has made the decision more complicated. As the Fed meets, officials must carefully consider how much weight to give the…

The Fed's balance sheet increased at the same time that FXCM's US.BANKS basket declined. This, as the confidence crisis in the banking sector unfolded.

The banking sector is under stress. It started with the demise of Silvergate Bank and then gained a momentum with the failure of SVB and Signature Bank last week. However, it was exacerbated yesterday with news of a growing crisis at Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest lender.

Bond yields are declining sharply as banking worries flare up again. This time its European banks which have triggered the flight to safety. The catalyst is the refusal of Credit Suisse’s biggest shareholder to invest anymore capital in the troubled bank. This, in turn, sparked selling in US regional bank shares as fears heighten that there is a distinct sensitivity to any rate increases within the sector. The CME Fedwatch…

The last three trading sessions has seen the US 02-year decline from 5.076% to 4.055%. Today’s trading is especially frenetic after weekended endeavours by regulators to stave off a bank run and prevent contagion from the SVB failure. Over the same period money has rotated into gold as a safe haven.