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The Turkish lira has capitulated over the last two months. In this article, we will consider a basic monetary economic model to explain the USDTRY's movements over this time frame. The Quantity Theory of Money One of the earliest models of monetary economics is the quantity theory of money (QTM). It can be traced back to Copernicus in the 16th century but was popularised by Friedman and Schwartz in the…
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The blue vertical is the beginning of November. The precious metal started the month poorly. By the 3rd of November, gold was down about 1.3% (month open to low). However, it charted a reference trough, and almost 48 hours later, it charted the required reference peak. With these two points as an anchor, the precious metal charted a series…
Introduction Since the pandemic high of 2020, the USDOLLAR has followed a structured cycle. There are four distinct phases. 1. Distribution phase. 2. Mark-down phase. 3. Accumulation phase. 4. Mark-up phase. Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. Distribution Phase This phase was uncharacteristically quick. As the pandemic unfolded, margin calls and the demand for dollars by debt-laden emerging economies drove the USD price up. However,…
The pair runs the fifth straight profitable week, after yesterday boost from Mr Powell’s re-nomination, while on a monthly level, November is on track to become the best of the year
The pair did not avert fresh 2021 lows today, after yesterday’s drop from Mr Powell re-nomination US Dollar boost, but finds support as European trader enter.
The pair registered a mixed week, as it erased gains from Wednesday’s 4+ year-highs and dropped on Friday, but today it manages to attract buyers
The pair comes from two straight weeks of losses and today its remains soft, exposed to Friday’s 2021 lows
The common currency managed to stage a solid rebound yesterday, but today, it faces renewed pressure on the back of fresh dovish ECB rhetoric
UK Retail Sales rose more than expected in October, adding to a series of supportive economic data for the British Pound
The pair finds support over the last couple of days, after having taken a beating earlier in the week from dovish RBA rhetoric and hot US CPI Inflation, but will struggle to avoid a negative weekly close
EURUSD Price Action For November Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. The chart above considers the EURUSD H4 scale. The vertical line marks 1 November. Area 1 shows that the month had a bullish start to it, climbing near 65 pips. However, this was short-lived, as the EURD plunged for 10 candlesticks before finding support and rebounding (area 2). However, it stopped short of area…
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