The SPX500 is up over 7.5% for November, with almost two weeks left of the month. A good portion of the appreciation came on Tuesday, 14 November, when the CPI data was released, coming in better than expected. This has led to thinking that the current Fed hiking cycle has likely peaked.
Core CPI came in at 0.2% m/m, which was lower than the forecasted 0.3% m/m. The FedWatch Tool gives the current probability of a December hike as negligible, with only 3.1% for January's Fed meeting.
Another sign that there is a tailwind behind the SPX500 is the pressure on the US 10-year real yield. The longer that pressure continues, the better it will be for the SPX500 as per its time value of money characteristics. I.e., lower yields tend to be beneficial for stocks as opportunity costs recede.
The SPX500's green 5-week EMA has crossed above its orange 10-week EMA (black ellipse), putting the EMAs into a bullish formation. Moreover, the EMAs are showing angle and separation, which is an underlying sign of a momentum build. This is corroborated by the RSI, which has moved to the bullish side of 50 (green rectangle). The longer the RSI maintains on this side, the greater the momentum support for the SPX500.
The next resistance level is 4,540 (resistance 1) and after that 4,610 may prove resilient (resistance 2). However, if the momentum continues to hold, these levels are likely to be overcome.
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.