Short-Term USDOLLAR/Gold Relative Strength Analysis
The top chart below shows the H4 relative strength ratio between FXCM's USDOLLAR basket and gold (XAUUSD). The ratio started to fall last week Wednesday (blue dashed vertical). I.e., the greenback was declining against the precious metal. The catalyst here was the spread of the omicron variant, and gold's regard as a safe haven. We do note that the EMAs and stochastic are rolling over (red ellipses), which may suggest further downside for the ratio. However, yields will have a bearing on just how far the decline will be. The lowest chart is the US10 yr treasury yield. Yields declined at the same time that the ratio fell (between the blue and red dashed verticals). This makes sense as the dollar lost its pricing support and gold's opportunity cost decreased as yields came down. We note that the Fed's hawkishness most likely places a floor and just how low the ratio can go, and in this regard the US10 Yr yield has started to appreciate (green rectangle). If this continues, the dollar will be supported and the precious metal's opportunity cost will increase.
Source: www.tradingview.com
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Featured Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
Russell Shor
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.