Oil gains as backwardation suggests tight supply

Russell Shor Written by Russell Shor
  • UKOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)
  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

Oil prices rose as traders evaluated China's economic outlook and geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East. Brent crude exceeded $85, while West Texas Intermediate was around $82. China's Caixin manufacturing index showed a three-year high in June, contrasting with official data of a decline. In France, Marine Le Pen's party led legislative elections, increasing regional political risk. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his stance to eliminate Hamas. Recent crude oil price gains have an underlying momentum, which bodes well for future prices. OPEC+ remains cautious about increasing production, contingent on market conditions. Financial managers have reinvested significantly in US crude futures amid a bullish backwardation trend, indicating tight supplies.

Russell Shor

Senior Market Strategist

Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.

Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.

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