NAS100 Cautious as Mega Cap Earnings & the Fed Loom

  • AMZN.us
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)
  • AAPL.us
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)
  • NAS100
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

NAS100 Analysis

The tech heavy-index slides this month, as shifting expectations around the Fed contain the AI-fueled rally. Policymakers have turned cautious towards removing monetary restraint because of resilient labor market, strong economy and persistent inflation, underscored by Friday's hot PCE report. Markets have pushed back the timing and extent of rate cuts, with CME's Fed Watch Tool currently assigning the highest probability to just one 25 bps cut this year [1]. Fed officials announce the latest policy decision on Wednesday and although no rate change is projected, investors will be eagerly anticipating any update around their intentions.

Mega cap earnings are also in the spotlight, as Amazon.com and Apple report their latest results, with the first coming from a series of impressive quarters and the latter facing multiple headwinds. Amazon expects sales to increase 8-13% y/y in the quarter reported on Tuesday [2], despite the pullback from the Q4 record number. The critical cloud business (AWS) will be closely watched after returning to growth and the advertising segment, amidst a broader market improvement. [2]

Apple on the other hand is in a weak position ahead of Thursday's results and could slip back to revenue contraction. It is facing weakening demand in China, regulatory challenges to its business model and appears to lag in the AI arena, as rivals like have already launched AI powered smartphones. These headwinds have weighed on the stock, which is close to bear territory despite its bounce over the past few days.

NAS100 is subdued today, as markets await these key events that can determine its trajectory. The tech-heavy index has pulled back from the March record peak and below the EMA200 there is risk for renewed pressure to the 38.2% Fibonacci. On the other hand, NAS100 defended this critical level and tries to take out the EMA200. Successful effort will open the door towards new all-time highs (18,495).

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 30 Apr 2024 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

2

Retrieved 24 Jun 2024 https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2024/Amazon.com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/default.aspx

${getInstrumentData.name} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${getInstrumentData.exchange}

${getInstrumentData.bid} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}
Disclosure

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.