GER30 Mixed after Upbeat EZ GDP Revision, ahead of ECB Policy Decision
GER30 Analysis
The European economy grew by 4.1% in the second quarter on annualized basis and by 0.8% quarter over quarter, according to the final figures releases earlier today, marking an upbeat revision over the preliminary reading.
However, GER30 fails to benefit from the encouraging figures since fears over the adverse effects of the energy crisis on the economy persist, with Russian Gazprom having indefinitely shat down gas flow via Nord Stream 1. [1]
Industrial production in Germany dropped 0.3% in July from +0.8% prior, a month during which the pipeline was closed for 10 days.
CEO of German gas giant Uniper – which had been bailed out by the government earlier in the summer - warned yesterday on CNBC that the worst is yet to come. [2]
Moreover, today's GDP data may play into the hand of ECB member that prefer a jumbo rate hike at Thursday's meeting. In July, the bank had taken key interest rate out of negative territory with an 0.5% move and officials have made hawkish remarks recently, which creates possibility of an equal or even bigger hike this time around.
The next leg of the GER30 move will likely be determined by the outcome of tomorrow's ECB meeting, which can also spur volatility, warranting caution.
From a technical perspective, the index is in precarious position and in risk of fresh 2022 lows (12,373), although a steeper decline below 12,135 that will bring 11,519 in the spotlight, will require a catalyst.
On the other hand, GER30 covers earlier losses and may get the chance to push for the EMA200 (13,130-90), but will need daily closes above this levels for the near-term downside bias to pause. Even then, the upside has any roadblocks from mid-13,000s and above, starting with the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 07 Sep 2022 https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1565759390782742529 | |
| Retrieved 04 Jun 2023 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/uniper-says-worst-is-still-to-come-as-russia-halts-gas-flows-to-europe.html |
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.