GER30 Cautious as the World Bank Downgrades Growth Forecasts

  • GER30
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GER30 Analysis

The World Bank downgraded its growth projections for the year and its President David Malpass, warned that "a recession will be hard to avoid" for many countries. [1]

Global GDP for 2022 is now projected to grow by 2.9%, down from 5.7% in 2021 and the 4.1% forecast in January. Euro Area GDP is seen at 2.5% in the current year, from the 5.2% growth in 2021 and the 4.2% projection in January.

Eurostat revised higher the Euro Area GDP for the first quarter today, which grew by 5.4% year-over-year, from 5.1% preliminary, while Industrial Output in Germany rose by 0.7% month-over-month in April, compared to 0.7% prior (revised).

Markets are jittery, as fears of stagflation and tightening monetary policies weigh, while investors brace for Thursday's monetary policy decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Friday's inflation update from the US.

GER30 is on the back foot today, with the technical landscape little changed from Monday's analysis, as it has been trading between key technical levels since late-May.

The German index had a solid performance last month, but had rejected the 200Days EMA on Monday and is susceptible to pressure towards the 200H4 EMA and the upper border of the daily Ichimoku Cloud (14,230-14,190). Closes below this level could open the door to further decline towards and beyond the ascending trendline from the 2022 lows (13,700), although this would need a strong catalyst.

On the other hand, GER30 started the week on the front foot and has not lost the ability to push again for the 14,730-14,821 region, but 15,387 is distant at this stage.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 03 Jul 2022 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/37224/9781464818431.pdf

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