GER30 Advances on Optimism Around the Ukraine Situation

  • GER30
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

Ukraine News

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced today that "The units of the Southern and Western military districts, having completed their tasks, have already begun loading onto rail and road transport and will begin moving to their military garrisons today. Separate units will march on their own as part of military columns." [1] Russia's joint military drills with neighboring Belarus however are still ongoing.

The United States have repeatedly warned of imminent Russian invasion in Ukraine, with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan saying that "a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now", in Sunday's interview on CNN's State of the Union [2].

Yesterday, US secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced the relocation of the US Embassy in Ukraine "due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces", heightening fears of war [3].

Focus now shifts on today's meeting between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Russian President Putin to discuss the situation. Germany and Europe depend on Russian gas and Mr Scholz has been coy around the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

In his visit to the White House last week, he did not follow President Biden's explicit wording that "there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2" if Russia invades Ukraine,
only commenting that "We will be united, we will act together, and we will take all the necessary steps".[4]

GER30 Reaction

The German Index gains more than 1.5% today, reacting positively to the latest news. This brings the 15,500 area in its crosshairs, which contains the EMA200 and the descending trend-line from January's highs. Above this levels immediate downside risk would ease, but the Daily Ichimokou Cloud could pose challenges to further aspirations (at around 15,850).

Despite today's optimism, the situation remains tense and GER30 is still in a precarious position after its three-decline. As such, there is risk for fresh 2022 lows (14,840-10), although sustained sub-14,500 don't appear easy at this point.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 15 Feb 2022 https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm

2

Retrieved 15 Feb 2022 https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/13/politics/jake-sullivan-cnntv/index.html

3

Retrieved 15 Feb 2022 https://www.state.gov/operations-at-u-s-embassy-kyiv/

4

Retrieved 01 Jul 2022 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/07/remarks-by-president-biden-and-chancellor-scholz-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-at-press-conference/

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