GBP/USD Down on Omicron Warning


UK Covid Woes

The British Prime Minister addressed the nation on Sunday, warning that "there is a tidal wave of Omicron coming" and announcing that all eligible adults "will have the chance to get their booster before the New Year", while calling people to get the jab. [1]

Earlier, the UK's four Chief Medical Officers raised the Covid Alert level to 4 (from 3), since early evidence shows that Omicron is spreading much faster than Delta and that vaccine protection against symptomatic disease from Omicron is reduced. [2]

US Inflation

Friday's data showed that headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation surged 6.8% y/y in November, compared to 6.2% prior, hitting its highest level since 1982. Core CPI (ex food & energy) rose 4.9%/yy, compared to +4.6% prior.

On a monthly basis however, CPI eased to 0.8% m/m from 0.9% prior and Core CPI to 0.5% m/m from 0.6% prior.

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GBP/USD Analysis

The US Dollar reacted lower on Friday's inflation as the month-over-month prints eased and the year-over-year figures came in as forecasted, despite surging.

This allowed the pair to close the day and the week with profits, above its EMA 100, despite Wednesday's new 2021 lows (1.3159). Today however, it comes under renewed
pressure in the aftermath of UK PM Johnson's stark Omicron warning and breaks back below the exponential moving average.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

The technical outlook has not changed much, as GBP/USD remains exposed to the 1.3164-33 area, but 1.3013-00 continues to be remote at this stage. The Pound however tries to fins support and a push higher could be in the cards, but strong catalyst will be required for moves past 1.3320 and a pause of downward pressure.

Upcoming Events

This week features many important events, which can potentially increase volatility and determine the pair's trajectory. Most notably, the monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday, while tomorrow we expect UK's employment data.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.



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