EUR/GBP Cautious as UK Politics & Central Banks Loom

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    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

UK Politics

UK PM Boris Johnson came under renewed fire yesterday in the Commons, following the release of the initial findings from Civil Servant Sue Gray, regarding Downing Street lockdown parties. Ms Gray did not provide full report, in order to not interfere with separate criminal investigation by the Metropolitan Police, in 12 of the 16 gatherings she looked into.

The report found "failures of leadership and judgment by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office". It also noted that "Some of the events should not have been allowed to take place. Other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did." [1]

Mr Johnson has been under increased pressure to resign, but is so far defiant, while conservative MPs may opt to wait for the police investigation and full Sue Gray report, before they decide on Mr Johnson's future. The lockdown parties saga weighed on the Pound yesterday, but so far its overall impact has been limited.

Central Banks Decisions

Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) hand down their monetary policy decisions on Thursday. The BoE is forecasted to hike rates for a second time in a row, in the face of surging inflation, following December's lift-off that had caught many investors by surprise.

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Not much seem to be expected from the ECB, but Ms Lagarde's press conference will be closely watched, as usual. Back in December the European Central Bank had announced that It will discontinue net asset purchases under the Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) at the end of March 2022 and that the Asset purchase programme (APP) pace will increase (from 20 bln/month) to €40 billion/month in the second quarter.

EUR/GBP

The monetary policy differential has worked in favor of the British Pound, as the pair dropped over the past two months, while Thursday's central bank activity could determine the next leg of the move.

The current week started on the front foot and the common currency now has the EMA200 and the descending trend-line from December highs in its crosshairs (0.8374-85), but a catalyst will be required for a break. Such move would pause the downside bias and allow it to push for 0.8423 and beyond.

Today however, EUR/GBP is under pressure and below the aforementioned technical levels, bears are in the driver's seat. As such, the pair remains vulnerable to new 2022 lows (0.8304), although it may be early for a sustained move below 0.8281-74.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 27 Jun 2022 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1051374/Investigation_into_alleged_gatherings_on_government_premises_during_Covid_restrictions_-_Update.pdf

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