Core PCE higher than previous, but lower than forecast, results in uncertain market action

  • USDOLLAR
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)


Source: www.tradingview.com

The Fed's preferred indicator of inflation, the core PCE printed at 5.1% YoY, higher than the previous release of 4.9% YoY. This increase is because everyday items such as food and medical care cost more. Next week the Fed is expected to increase interest rates by another 75bps.

The real rate charted a spinning top (red arrow) on the H1 chart following the release, indicating confusion. This uncertainty might be because although the actual was higher, it came in lower than the forecasted 5.2% YoY.

FXCM's USDOLLAR followed the real rate by also charting a spinning top (green arrow). We continue to watch the real rate for potential directional cues.

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

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