Global Markets

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on Nvidia’s AI-boosted forward guidance, the FOMC minutes and yesterday’s RBNZ policy decision

The FOMC minutes show that the Fed sees a slowing of inflation, which may support a peak in the federal funds rate this year. However, the minutes were penned before notable data. January’s jobs report was strong, showing an increase of 517,000 in nonfarm payrolls. Inflation was also higher than consensus, with the headline CPI printing at 0.5% m/m.

The RBNZ delivered a smaller hike than the previous record 0.75% move, but remained hawkish and maintained its view that more tightening is needed

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the UK PMI beat that lifted GBP/USD, hawkish minutes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the narrowing differential between the Fed and the ECB and more

Last week’s CPI and PPI release show a stickiness to inflation. The market seems to be coming around to the Fed’s view whilst several Fed officials talk up interest rates. This week the Fed’s minutes will be released on Wednesday and Friday sees the all-important core PCE release. Join FXCM senior market specialists Russ and Nik as they discuss these and more.

Sticky inflation persists. The prices of median goods and services have ticked up. This slow change of prices is a headache for the Federal Reserve. They will worry that inflation expectations have anchored to an elevated level.

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the latest data from the US that put pressure on Wall Street, the lower than expected UK inflation and its impact on GBP/USD, the recent earnings releases and more

Watch today’s US Open for commentary on the just released US CPI inflation data and the reaction of EUR/USD and NAS100, insights on Disney’s recent quarterly results and more

Core inflation dropped to 5.6% y/y, down from the previous print of 5.7% y/y. The decline gives way gradient (blue circle) and missed the consensus of 5.5% y/y. It is moving in the right direction.

FXCM's 2023 outlook webinar, hosted by senior market specialists Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras.

The market has been resilient despite the poor showing. This is telling. Dow Theory maintains that a bull market has three phases. The first phase, accumulation, sees smart money recognising the current poor conditions, but positioning for the turn up. Bids increase as selling volumes diminish. There is a feeling of pessimism. However, prices have stopped going down. This matches with current resiliency.