Global Markets

The central bank delivered its fourth interest rate increase in a row, in order to combat surging inflation and sees more hikes ahead

The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 50 basis points as expected on Wednesday, which was the biggest increase since 2000 and the dot-com bubble

The core PCE reading of 5.2%, the higher than anticipated employment cost index, and tight labour conditions will trump the disappointing GDP contraction of -1.4% q/q (1.1% q/q forecast).

BoJ diverges further away from Fed as it defends 25bps on its 10-year treasury. Core PCE moderates slightly, but employment costs are up. Advanced GDP stumbles to -1.4%contraction Q/Q. The RBA surprised with a 25bps hike, and the market looks to the Fed announcement on Wednesday for an expected 50bps hike and QT information. The market expects the BoE to raise rates by 25 bps, and Friday sees the NFP…

The required rate of return is in flux. This adjustment increases uncertainty in the financial markets.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE index, registered a 5.2% increase YoY. This figure slightly moderates from the 5.3% a month ago, the highest reading since April 1983. Nevertheless, the Fed will still be concerned with controlling inflation, given that its price target is an average rate of 2%. Therefore, next week Wednesday, 5th May, the Fed is expected to hike rates by 50bps. Moreover, the central…

Last Thursday, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a 50 bps hike for May. He also endorsed an acceleration in the raising of rates. Moreover, the market is preparing for these to be front-loaded over the next few meetings. The ECB is also growing more hawkish, and EU CPI came in at 7.2%. Twitter has agreed to Elon Musk's offer of $54.20 per share in a takeover, and this week will…

Real rates have just turned positive.

Our market specialists discuss inflation in this week's podcast, specifically PPI's influence on core CPI. The ECB confirms that its APP will conclude in Q3 and Elon Musk makes an unsolicited bid for Twitter. We also talk about USDJPY and its seven weeks of dramatic rise. This week has notable central bankers speaking at the spring meetings of the IMF, and it's an important week for earnings.

The PPI spike makes it difficult to call a top to core CPI.

Even though core CPI moderated, it is too early to call for a top in inflation.