AUD/USD Upbeat as RBA Governor Keeps 50 bps on the Table
AUD/USD Analysis
The pair comes from its first losing week in more than a month and the new one did not start well either, since Antipodeans were weighed by fears over China's elevated Covid-19 cases and the first related deaths in a long time. [1]
AUD/USD had rejected the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2022 High/Low drop and this creates risk for a breach of the EM200 (0.6530), which would put near-term bias back to the downside. This could open the door to further decline towards 0.6380-70, but a fresh catalyst would be likely needed for this and the Aussie seems well protected from there on.
The USDOLLAR is having a poor month as markets contemplate a potential slowdown in the pace of the Fed's aggressive rate-hike cycle, but its Australian counterpart has already lifted the foot off the pedal. The RBA has delivered two straight 25 basis points increases, after a series of bigger 50 bps moves.
However, Inflation data suggest that more work is needed on the tighening front, as CPI surged to 7.3% y/y in Australia in Q3, which is the highest level in thirty-two years. Governor Lowe alluded to this today, as he expects the Board to "increase interest rates further over the period ahead". Furthermore, he kept the larger 50 basis points hike on the table, saying that officials "have not ruled out" such a move. [2]
AUD/USD finds renewed buying interest today helped by the above remarks and the greenback's weakness, which allows it to make another push for 0.6740, although sentiment is still fragile. As such, it does not yet inspire confidence for a broader surge that would take out the 200Days EMA (at mid-0.6800s)
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 22 Nov 2022 https://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202211/22/content_WS637c3e83c6d0a757729e3866.html | |
| Retrieved 28 Sep 2023 https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-gov-2022-11-22.html |
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