AUD/USD Drop After RBA’s Decision

  • AUDUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate (OCR) at 0.1% today and will continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $4 billion a week until at least mid February 2022. However, it decided to discontinue the target for the yield on the April 2024 bond, after the recent 3Y Yields surge.

The Board reiterated that it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range, but now sees this happening earlier than before, "…with the central forecast being for underlying inflation to be no higher than 2½ per cent at the end of 2023…". [1]

The bank opened the door to earlier rate increases, but it put effort to remain dovish and disappointed aggressive market expectations around rate hikes, at least judging by the Kiwi's reaction.

AUD/USD shed nearly 1% today and tries to hold 0.7450, below which lie the 200 Days and 200 H4 exponential moving averages.

This area has ability to provide support and as long as it holds, the pair could push back and try to reclaim the 0.7500 handle, but October highs (0.7556) appear distant at this stage. A break below this on the other hand, would expose it to moves towards and potentially below 0.7377-0.

In any case the next leg is likely to be decided by Wednesday's Fed monetary policy decision, as investors will be waiting to see if tit will announce start date and pace of QE tapering.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 02 Nov 2021 https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-24.html

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