XAU/USD Mixed Amidst Geopolitical Tensions, US Dollar Strength

  • XAUUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

Geopolitical Jitters

Tensions between Russia and European allies have heated up this week, as Russian energy firm Gazprom cut gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, after the two countries refused to pay in Rubles. [1]

Russian President had demanded such payments from unfriendly countries in late March [2], while yesterday, he threatened with "retaliatory strikes", if anyone intervenes "from the outside and create a strategic threat to Russia that is unacceptable to us". [3]

This latest warning comes as Europe ramps up military support to Ukraine, as Germany will be sending tanks to the defensing country [4], whereas UK's Foreign Secretary Ms Truss called for the provision of "heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes" and escalated the rhetoric, saying that "We will keep going further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine". [5]

US Dollar Strength

The greenback continues to elicit strength form the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening prospects, ahead of next week's meeting. Following the 25 basis points liftoff in March, officials have been preparing markets for a larger 50 basis points increase in interest rates.

Last Thursday and just days before the blackout period, Chair Powell alluded to that prospect with his remarks in a panel discussion of the International Monetary Fund last Thursday, saying that "I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting". [6]

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XAU/USD Analysis

The precious metal is running its second straight negative week, but finds support during today's European session. This gives it the opportunity to push towards 1,911, but it does not inspire confidence at this stage, for a larger advance beyond EMA200 (at around 1,932).

Below this level, near-term bias is tilted to the downside and XAU/USD is in risk of renewed pressure towards 1,844, but this year's lows (1,780) are distant.

Markets now await US Q1 GDP which is due shortly and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 28 Apr 2022 https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1519208376013664256

2

Retrieved 28 Apr 2022 http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/68094

3

Retrieved 28 Apr 2022 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68297

4

Retrieved 28 Apr 2022 https://www.deutschland.de/en/news/germany-agrees-to-supply-tanks-to-ukraine

5

Retrieved 28 Apr 2022 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretarys-mansion-house-speech-at-the-lord-mayors-easter-banquet-the-return-of-geopolitics

6

Retrieved 01 Jul 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch

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