USOIL Soft as OPEC Downgrades its Oil Demand Forecast

  • USOil

USOIL Analysis

The commodity benefited last week from the easing of some Covid-19 quarantine measures in China [1], but authorities remain committed to the zero-Covid policy, as cases are on the rise recently. The world's second largest consumer of oil, registered 1,747 new locally transmitted infection on November 13 and 14,325 new local asymptomatic carriers overall, marked increase from the previous days. [2]

The softer CPI inflation report from the United States was also helpful, as it caused markets to pare back their expectations around the Fed's rate hike path and to move away from the greenback. In spite of that, USOil closed last week with losses and faces renewed pressure today, as OPEC downgraded its demand forecast.

In its latest monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its world oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels/day for 2022 and 2023, compared to the previous projection. Demand is now expected post yearly growth of 2.55 and 2.24 million barrels/day respectively. The group's production dropped by 210,000 m/m barrels/day in October, to 29.49 million barrels/day. [3]

USOil rejected for second time the 38.2% Fibonacci of the June high/September low decline and is susceptible to fresh November lows (84.70). A larger drop below 80.00-79.88 that will bring the 2022 lows (74.26) in the spotlight may prove elusive in the near term.

On the other hand, the commodity shows some resilience as the push-and-pull between supply and demand continues, running its second straight profitable month. As such, it has the ability to try again for the 38.2% Fibonacci (94.36, but does not inspire confidence at this stage for an advance towards and beyond 98.69.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.



Retrieved 14 Nov 2022


Retrieved 14 Nov 2022


Retrieved 16 Apr 2024

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.