USOIL Soft as OPEC Downgrades its Oil Demand Forecast

  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

USOIL Analysis

The commodity benefited last week from the easing of some Covid-19 quarantine measures in China [1], but authorities remain committed to the zero-Covid policy, as cases are on the rise recently. The world's second largest consumer of oil, registered 1,747 new locally transmitted infection on November 13 and 14,325 new local asymptomatic carriers overall, marked increase from the previous days. [2]

The softer CPI inflation report from the United States was also helpful, as it caused markets to pare back their expectations around the Fed's rate hike path and to move away from the greenback. In spite of that, USOil closed last week with losses and faces renewed pressure today, as OPEC downgraded its demand forecast.

In its latest monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its world oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels/day for 2022 and 2023, compared to the previous projection. Demand is now expected post yearly growth of 2.55 and 2.24 million barrels/day respectively. The group's production dropped by 210,000 m/m barrels/day in October, to 29.49 million barrels/day. [3]

USOil rejected for second time the 38.2% Fibonacci of the June high/September low decline and is susceptible to fresh November lows (84.70). A larger drop below 80.00-79.88 that will bring the 2022 lows (74.26) in the spotlight may prove elusive in the near term.

On the other hand, the commodity shows some resilience as the push-and-pull between supply and demand continues, running its second straight profitable month. As such, it has the ability to try again for the 38.2% Fibonacci (94.36, but does not inspire confidence at this stage for an advance towards and beyond 98.69.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 14 Nov 2022 https://english.www.gov.cn/news/topnews/202211/11/content_WS636e31efc6d0a757729e2e63.html

2

Retrieved 14 Nov 2022 https://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202211/14/content_WS6371a7dec6d0a757729e31a5.html

3

Retrieved 30 Nov 2022 https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

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