USOIL Snaps 7-Weeks Profitable Streak on Fed, China Fears

  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

USOIL Analysis

Wednesday's minutes of the last Fed policy decision had a hawkish bias that kept the door open to further hikes [1]. Along with strong economic releases this week, they add credence to the higher-for-longer narrative and markets are coming to terms with that prospect. China's recovery meanwhile falters, as the stream of negative data continued, while focus shifts to the troubled real estate market, as property developer Country Garden faces difficulties.

Prospects for further monetary tightening in the US and renewed fears over China's recovery, don't bode well for USOil, as the two countries are the top consumers of oil. Earlier this month, the international Energy Agency (IEA) maintained its demand growth for 2023, but lowered it for the next year. [2]

The above news send USOil towards its first losing week in around two months. This creates risk for a breach of 78.80-77.98 and daily closes below it would halt the bullish bias. The downside seems well protected though and we are cautious around prospects of sustained weakness.

OPEC+ cuts are set to lead to tighter oil markets in the second half of the year, the US economy performs better than expected and China's authorities are taking action to prop the recovery. As long as it defends the 38.2% Fibonacci and the EMA200, the slide is viewed as a limited correction that will allow it to push for new 2023 highs (84.91), although 90.36 remains distant.

Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 18 Aug 2023 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20230726.pdf

2

Retrieved 24 Jul 2024 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2023

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